RGGI Carbon Leakage Monitor — PJM

For the most recent hour PJM reported to EIA (~16-24h lag). Leakage extrapolated by applying the latest CAMD-confirmed month's policy-effect ratio to the EIA hourly fossil mix. Use as an indicator of current dispatch distortion magnitude — the rigorous unit-level number is in the headline cards above (T-1 month).

★ citable Apples-to-apples policy effect: same model, same load, RGGI carbon adder turned on vs off — the difference is the pure dispatch distortion attributable to RGGI.   directional Observed Δ uses real CAMD measurements vs model — useful for trend, but conflates policy with ramp/transmission/must-run modeling gaps.

VA has signaled intent to (re)join RGGI as soon as July 1, 2026. Our apples-to-apples model run with VA's 15 fossil units flagged as RGGI compliance — same load, same fuel costs, RGGI carbon adder applied to VA — produces the following month-of-—:

VA has a relatively clean combined-cycle gas fleet plus some coal. Putting them under RGGI raises their dispatch cost, pushing more generation into non-RGGI PJM states (KY, OH, WV, PA) which run dirtier units at the margin. The leakage effect dominates the local cleaning effect — RGGI expansion makes total emissions higher, not lower.

Actual (CAMD)  Modeled with RGGI  Modeled without RGGI  RGGI price (right axis)

As the RGGI allowance price rises, how does the dispatch distortion grow? Each point is one day of the analysis window.

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Estimated lost / gained revenue uses a rough $10/MWh dispatch margin assumption. Real margins depend on PJM LMPs and unit-specific cost stack — true figures vary $5–$25/MWh by unit and hour. Owner mapping uses EIA-860 → EPA Power Sector crosswalk (in progress).

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Tax-per-MWh estimates are approximate combined state + local burden (gross-receipts/utility tax + corporate income allocation + coal severance for coal states). Refinement against state DOR data pending. Excludes property tax (unchanged by dispatch).